Exploring Steve’s 5.3 Bitcoin Theory For Future ATH BTC Price Predictions

January 24, 2024 April 12, 2024

The “Bitcoin 5.3 Theory,” also known as Steve’s 5.3 Bitcoin Theory, has recently garnered attention within the cryptocurrency community. This theory suggests that the returns from Bitcoin’s price cycle bottoms to tops are diminishing by a factor of 5.3x. If this pattern continues, it posits that the next cycle peak for Bitcoin could reach around $77,000. This is based on an analysis of past cycles where the returns measured from cycle bottoms to tops showed an average diminishing factor close to 5.3x, with specific cycle returns being 5.34x, 4.96x, and 5.63x. When these figures are averaged, they align with the theory, presenting a potential next cycle top in the range of $73,522 to $81,675.

The theory also discusses the significance of Fibonacci extension levels, which have historically aligned with Bitcoin’s cycle tops. To reach a $100,000 cycle top, a different rate of diminishing returns would be required, specifically a lower rate than what has been observed so far. There’s speculation that the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could influence future market dynamics by potentially increasing demand and liquidity, which might alter the expected diminishing returns and lead to higher cycle tops than currently anticipated by this theory

To estimate a projected all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin after the end of the reward halving system, using Steve’s 5.3 theory as a basis, we’d have to consider a few key assumptions and variables. The theory suggests that the returns from cycle bottoms to tops diminish by a factor of 5.3 times. Bitcoin halvings, events that reduce the reward for mining new blocks by half, occur approximately every four years and have historically been associated with significant price rallies in the months or years following the halving.

Given that the last Bitcoin halving is expected to occur around the year 2140, after which mining rewards will cease, projecting an ATH post this period requires extrapolating existing patterns far into the future. Such an extrapolation would inherently carry significant uncertainty due to the myriad of factors that can affect Bitcoin’s price dynamics over such a long timeframe, including technological, regulatory, and macroeconomic factors.

However, for the sake of this thought experiment, let’s follow the diminishing returns pattern suggested by Steve’s 5.3 theory. Assuming the pattern continues and the average return from each cycle post-halving diminishes by a factor of 5.3x, we can make a speculative projection.

The projected top after the last Bitcoin halving according to the 5.3 theory would be approximately $74, 202, 328, 009, 237$ trillion USD, which is around 74 billion trillion USD. This is an extraordinarily large number that is well beyond any current economic total value, highlighting the limitations and speculative nature of extending such a theory over many decades into the future.

Begin with the projected 5.3 theory top of $73,522 after the 2024 halving.
Apply the diminishing return factor of 5.3x to each subsequent cycle.
Continue applying the factor for each of the 29 halvings.

Let’s perform these calculations.

After applying the 5.3 theory to each of the 29 halvings expected from the 2024 halving until the final one around the year 2140, the projected top after the last halving would be approximately $7.42 \times 1 0^{25}$ USD.

Certainly, here’s how the blog post might be structured to explain the calculation process:

A Journey into the Future

In the landscape of cryptocurrency speculation, few theories have sparked as much curiosity as the “Steve’s 5.3 Bitcoin Theory.” This intriguing concept suggests that Bitcoin’s returns from cycle bottoms to tops are diminishing by a factor of 5.3 with each halving event. The halving, which occurs approximately every four years, is when the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut in half, an event that historically correlates with significant price movements. But what happens when we apply this theory to the extreme – all the way to the final Bitcoin halving expected around the year 2140?

Understanding the 5.3 Theory

The theory’s foundation is simple: after each halving, the subsequent peak in Bitcoin’s price is 5.3 times higher than the previous cycle bottom. Historical data has provided some support for this pattern, with cycle peaks often coming in around this multiple.

The Calculation Approach

Our journey begins in the year 2024, the next scheduled halving, with an assumed cycle bottom of $73,522 – the lower end of the projected peak according to Steve’s theory. Here’s how we calculate the projected peak for the final halving, step by step:

Identify the Number of Halvings Left: We determine there are 29 halvings from 2024 until the final one in 2140.
Apply the 5.3 Multiple: Starting with our assumed bottom, we multiply the price by 5.3 to get the peak of the following cycle.
Iterate Through Each Halving: We apply this multiple for each of the remaining 29 halvings.

Here’s a simplified view of the formula used: $Next Peak = Current Bottom \times 5.3$

The Mathematical Odyssey

Through the power of Python and mathematical functions, we embarked on this numerical odyssey. The log10 and floor functions from Python’s math module were our guides as we traversed the exponential landscape laid out by the 5.3 theory.

We began with our first projected peak after the 2024 halving and iteratively multiplied the peak of each cycle by 5.3 to estimate the next one. With each step, we watched the numbers grow exponentially until we reached the projected peak after the final halving.

The Astonishing Conclusion

Our final calculation yielded a number that defies conventional financial scales: approximately $74, 202, 328, 009, 237$ trillion USD. This number is so vast that it surpasses global economic figures and ventures into the realm of the unfathomable.

Reflections on the Calculation

While the calculations themselves are mathematically sound, the result highlights the speculative and hypothetical nature of projecting financial theories far into the future. The assumptions made today may not hold in the face of technological advances, changes in market dynamics, or unforeseen economic factors. Thus, while the exercise is intellectually stimulating, the outcome should be viewed with a critical eye.

Collaborative Verification

In the spirit of scientific inquiry and collaboration, we encourage our readers to engage with the calculations, challenge the assumptions, and contribute to a deeper understanding of the theory. The blockchain itself is built on the premise of collective verification, and so we apply this principle to our exploration of Bitcoin’s potential future.

Concluding Thoughts

As we conclude our mathematical exploration of Steve’s 5.3 Bitcoin Theory, we are reminded that the world of cryptocurrency is as much about the journey as the destination. Whether Bitcoin will reach the astronomical levels projected by this theory is a question for time to answer. Until then, we revel in the community’s shared pursuit of knowledge and understanding within the enigmatic realm of digital currencies.