Simulation of incidence of malignant brain tumors in birth cohorts that started using mobile phones when they first became popular in Japan

Abstract

Overview

Mobile phones have been widely used in Japan since the last two decades. The increasing usage has raised concerns regarding health implications, particularly in relation to malignant brain tumors.

Findings

• Data was gathered using an Internet-based questionnaire surveying individuals born from 1960 to 1989.
• The study particularly calculated mobile phone ownership from 1990 to 2012 across three birth cohorts: 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.
• Following the calculations, a simulation estimated the incidence of malignant brain tumors under certain risk conditions, setting a relative risk at 1.4 after 1,640 hours of cumulative mobile phone use.
• Projected incidence rates of malignant brain tumors in 2020 were:
  • 5.48 per 100,000 population for the 1960s birth cohort,
  • 3.16 for the 1970s birth cohort,
  • 2.29 for the 1980s birth cohort.
• These modeled scenarios indicated a potential increase in the incidence of malignant brain tumors by 2020.

Conclusion

Given the simulated increase in incidence, further epidemiological studies are needed to investigate whether the rise in malignant brain tumors correlates with mobile phone use in the specified birth cohorts.