Effects of communicating uncertainty descriptions in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection

Abstract

Overview

Uncertainty is a crucial issue for any risk assessment, bringing significant challenges to risk communications. Recognizing the need for comprehensive reporting, many guidebooks promote the acknowledgment of uncertainties in risk assessments.

Findings

• Three experiments focusing on EMF-related health risks were conducted to analyze the effects of communicating uncertainties in hazard identification, risk characterization, and risk protection.
• Study outcomes suggest qualitative uncertainty reports reduce confidence in assessor competencies during hazard identification, while quantitative descriptions in risk characterization do not alter risk perception or trust.
• In risk protection scenarios, qualitative uncertainty information elevated fears about the adequacy of protection measures, negatively impacting text understandability when causes of uncertainty were explained.

Conclusion

The experiments underscore the nuanced impacts of uncertainty reporting in science communication. Highlighting uncertainties can diminish trust and credibility, particularly when it comes to hazard identification. This effect may be leveraged by skeptics or politically motivated groups to foster distrust in scientific findings. Risk communicators need to manage the delicate balance of transparency and its potential repercussions carefully.

Future studies should delve deeper into how individuals' backgrounds and cognitive processes affect their reception and interpretation of uncertainty information in risk assessments.